Analysis of InvestingPro Model Accuracy & NuScale Power's 47% Stock Decline

This analysis addresses two core questions: the accuracy of algorithmic fair value models like InvestingPro and the drivers of NuScale Power’s (SMR) stock decline.

1. InvestingPro Model Accuracy
   
   InvestingPro’s algorithmic fair value model predicted a 47% decline for SMR, which closely aligned with the actual ~49% drop observed between June 2 ($31.61) and December 19, 2025 ($16.07) [0]. The model’s effectiveness in this case stems from its ability to identify overvaluation signals in volatile sectors, a key strength highlighted by the clean energy industry’s susceptibility to hype-driven price swings.

2. Key Factors for NuScale’s Decline

• Fluor Stake Monetization
  : Fluor’s announcement to monetize its ~39% stake in NuScale via structured share sales created significant selling pressure [1].
• Financial Fundamentals
  : Negative free cash flow (-$199.94M in Q3 2025) and a high enterprise-to-sales ratio (184.34) reflected aggressive accounting practices and unsustainable valuation [0].
• Sentiment Shift
  : The stock’s initial overvaluation from AI/nuclear energy hype reversed as investor enthusiasm cooled, amplifying the decline [1].

• Algorithmic fair value models can effectively detect overvaluation in volatile sectors like clean energy, but actual decline magnitudes may slightly differ from predictions due to real-time market events (e.g., institutional stake sales).
• Mixed analyst views (5 “buy,” 7 “hold,” 1 “sell”) and the non-binding nature of NuScale’s TVA-InterOne agreement contributed to ongoing market uncertainty, further impacting the stock [1].

• Risks
  :
  • Uncertain timelines for Fluor’s stake monetization and TVA agreement finalization.
  • Regulatory and funding challenges for NuScale’s long-term commercial deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs).
• Opportunities
  :
  • NRC approval for SMR technology positions NuScale as a leader in the clean energy space, with potential for value appreciation if commercialization progresses.

InvestingPro’s model demonstrated accuracy in predicting NuScale’s decline, validating algorithmic valuation tools for identifying overvalued stocks in volatile markets. The decline was driven by a combination of institutional selling, weak financial fundamentals, and shifting market sentiment. Investors should balance model insights with real-time events and long-term industry prospects when evaluating clean energy stocks.

All information is based on verified market data [0] and web search results [1].