Canada Retail Sales Rebound 1.2% in November 2025, Signaling Positive Holiday Season Start

This analysis is based on The Wall Street Journal’s report [4] that Canada’s November 2025 retail sales rebounded 1.2% (advance tally) after two consecutive monthly declines, indicating a positive start to the holiday season. Supplementary data from Morningstar [1][3] confirms this is the strongest monthly advance in five months, following a 0.2% dip in October 2025. The Bank of Canada, as cited by Morningstar [1], forecasts modest 0.5% GDP growth for Q4 2025 and an average 1.4% growth rate for 2026-2027, while noting ongoing labor market weakness as a headwind to household spending. Visa’s holiday spending report (via Yahoo Finance [2]) projects 4.4% year-over-year growth in Canadian holiday retail sales, with double-digit gains in clothing/accessories (+10%) and health/personal care (+5.4%), aligning with the November sales rebound.

1. The November retail sales rebound, though an advance estimate, signals a temporary improvement in consumer confidence amid holiday season spending, contrasting with the prior two months of declines.
2. Visa’s sector-specific growth projections [2] highlight that discretionary categories like apparel are leading the holiday spending surge, suggesting consumers may be prioritizing seasonal purchases despite broader economic concerns.
3. The Bank of Canada’s cautious 2026-2027 GDP growth outlook [1] indicates that the current retail resilience may be short-lived, with labor market slack and ongoing US-Canada trade tensions expected to sustain economic headwinds beyond the holiday period.

• Risks
  : Potential downward revisions to the advance retail sales data, persistent labor market weakness weighing on long-term consumer spending, and escalating US-Canada trade conflicts disrupting supply chains and consumer sentiment.
• Opportunities
  : The 4.4% projected holiday spending growth [2] could support the Bank of Canada’s Q4 GDP forecast [1], while strong performance in apparel and health care retail may benefit sector-specific businesses in the short term.

• November 2025 Canadian retail sales rebounded 1.2% (advance estimate, strongest in five months) [4][1][3]
• Followed declines in September and October 2025 (October: -0.2% [1])
• Visa forecasts 4.4% year-over-year holiday retail spending growth, with clothing/accessories (+10%) and health/personal care (+5.4%) leading [2]
• Bank of Canada projects 0.5% Q4 2025 GDP growth and 1.4% average growth for 2026-2027, citing labor market weakness as a headwind [1]
• The sales data is an advance estimate; final revised figures may vary