S&P 500: Rally Continues to Record High Amidst Technical Caution (2025)

This analysis is based on the Seeking Alpha article published on December 21, 2025, titled “S&P 500: Enjoy The Rally, It May Be The Last (Technical Analysis)” [1]. The article noted a bullish technical shift for the S&P 500 at the end of the week ending December 19, 2025, but warned the rally might be unsustainable.

Internal technical analysis for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) as of December 23, 2025, shows a MACD golden cross (a bullish signal) and a bullish KDJ reading (K=63.9, D=50.2, J=91.4) [0]. The index traded in a sideways range of $681.99 to $691.41 (SPY price) with the December 23 close of $687.96 near the upper boundary [0]. Following the article’s publication, the S&P 500 advanced 0.19% on December 22, 2025, with ten of its 11 sectors closing higher (broad market participation) [2]. On December 23, 2025, the index rose another 0.54% to close at a record high of 6909.78, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains [3]. Trading volume on December 19, 2025, was 8.55 billion, above the previous week’s average, supporting the bullish technical signal [0]. The VIX (volatility index) declined from 14.91 on December 19 to 14.00 on December 23, reflecting reduced market fear during the rally [0].

Despite the rally and record high, the sideways trend identified in technical analysis aligns with the article’s cautious outlook, as the index remains constrained within a defined range. Key information gaps exist: the full content of the Seeking Alpha article (including specific resistance levels and time horizon for the “last rally”) is unavailable, and RSI (a critical overbought/oversold indicator) data was missing, which could validate the caution [0].

1. Bullish short-term momentum with range constraints
   : The S&P 500’s rally to a record high is supported by bullish MACD/ KDJ signals, elevated volume, and broad sector participation, but the sideways range ($681.99-$691.41 SPY) suggests limited upward room without a break above the upper boundary [0, 2].
2. Contradiction between article caution and short-term performance
   : The record high on December 23 contradicts the article’s immediate “last rally” warning, but the continued range-bound trading warrants monitoring for potential resistance at the upper range limit [0, 3].
3. Market complacency risk
   : The declining VIX indicates reduced market fear, which historically can precede sudden reversals if negative catalysts (e.g., macroeconomic data shifts, Fed policy changes) emerge [0].

1. Range resistance
   : The S&P 500/SPY may face selling pressure near the upper range boundary ($691.41 SPY) [0].
2. Overbought conditions
   : Although RSI data is missing, the four-day rally and record high increase the likelihood of overbought markets, which could lead to a pullback [0].
3. Volatility spike
   : A sudden increase in VIX, especially accompanied by a break below the range’s support level ($681.99 SPY), could signal a market reversal [0].
4. Macro uncertainty
   : Upcoming economic data (inflation, jobs) and central bank statements could alter market sentiment abruptly [0].

1. Short-term extended gains
   : If the index breaks above the upper range boundary with strong volume, it could extend the rally beyond current levels [0].
2. Technical momentum confirmation
   : A sustained break above the range would invalidate the sideways trend and strengthen bullish momentum signals [0].

• The original event was a Seeking Alpha article (2025-12-21) cautioning the S&P 500 rally might be unsustainable despite bullish technicals [1].
• Post-article, the S&P 500 rallied to a record high (2025-12-23) with broad sector participation, low volatility, and bullish MACD/ KDJ signals for SPY [0, 2, 3].
• Technical analysis indicates the index is in a sideways range ($681.99–$691.41 SPY), aligning with the article’s cautious outlook [0].
• Information gaps include missing full article content and RSI data, which limit validation of the cautionary view [0].
• Key factors to monitor: range boundaries, trading volume, upcoming macroeconomic data, and VIX movements [0].