Investment Prospects for RKLB, LUNR, PL Amid Space-AI Capital Competition Post-Rocket Lab Contract

On December 19, 2025, Rocket Lab (RKLB) was awarded an $816M prime contract by the U.S. Space Force to build a missile defense satellite constellation—its largest contract to date [1][2]. This catalyst lifted RKLB’s stock 17.7% on the day and sparked sector-wide momentum, with peers Intuitive Machines (LUNR) and Planet Labs (PL) also experiencing significant surges. As of December 24, 2025, all three stocks show strong one-month performance, with market caps of $39.59B (RKLB), $2.95B (LUNR), and $6.27B (PL) [0]. Analyst consensus rates all three as “Buy,” with LUNR having the highest Buy rating at 83.3% [0]. However, the space sector faces ongoing competition from AI, which has dominated investor attention and capital allocation in recent years, potentially limiting funding flows to space companies.

1. Defense contracts, such as RKLB’s Space Force award, are emerging as critical drivers for space stocks, distinguishing the sector’s growth narrative from AI’s tech-focused expansion.
2. RKLB’s vertical integration (28.7% revenue from launch services, 71.3% from space systems in FY2024) enhances its competitive position in the industry [0].
3. The synchronized surge across RKLB, LUNR, and PL indicates growing investor interest in the space sector, even amid AI’s dominant market position.

• Risks
  :
  • Ongoing competition with AI for investor capital could constrain funding for space companies if AI’s growth accelerates further.
  • All three stocks have negative P/E ratios (RKLB -145.84x, LUNR -7.34x, PL -69.70x), indicating no current profitability, which may deter risk-averse investors [0].
  • RKLB’s founder and CEO sold $141M in shares in December 2025, raising insider selling concerns [3].
  • The space industry’s capital-intensive nature and high R&D costs could delay profitability for the stocks.
• Opportunities
  :
  • Defense space initiatives provide stable revenue streams, as demonstrated by RKLB’s contract.
  • Commercial space growth (e.g., satellite constellations, launch services) could drive long-term profitability once scale is achieved.
  • Sector-wide momentum may attract new investors to the space theme, offsetting AI competition.

RKLB’s $816M Space Force contract triggered strong sector momentum, with RKLB, LUNR, and PL posting significant one-month gains. While analyst sentiment is positive (all rated “Buy”), investors should consider AI’s capital dominance, the stocks’ current unprofitability, and RKLB’s insider selling activity. The space sector’s growth prospects are tied to defense and commercial opportunities, which could offset AI competition over time. No prescriptive investment recommendations are provided.