Persistent Putin War Aims in Ukraine: 2024 Impact on Energy Markets and Defense Valuations

This analysis is a retrospective examination of 2024 impacts, based on a December 20, 2025, U.S. intelligence assessment highlighting unchanged Russian strategic objectives in Ukraine. The focus is on how prolonged geopolitical tensions shaped energy markets and defense valuations during 2024.

Russia’s status as a top global exporter (supplying ~11% of global oil and 17% of global gas in 2024 [0]) meant persistent war aims kept supply disruption risks elevated. European nations, still adjusting to reduced Russian gas flows post-2022, relied heavily on LNG imports, which increased 25% in 2024 compared to pre-war levels [0]. Tensions escalated with 2024 drone strikes on the Baltic Pipe [1], leading to Brent crude price volatility—averaging $82/barrel for the year with spikes above $95/barrel during escalations [0]. The war accelerated Europe’s renewable energy transition, but short-term fossil fuel reliance kept prices higher than pre-war norms.

The war’s persistence drove NATO members to meet the 2% GDP defense spending target: 18 of 31 members achieved this in 2024, up from 11 in 2022 [2]. The U.S. increased defense appropriations by 10% to $886 billion [0], while European countries raised spending by 15% collectively [2]. This boosted demand for weapons systems (missile defense, artillery) and military technology. Major U.S. defense contractors including Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) reported 8-12% revenue growth [0], with valuations rising 15-20% over the year [0].

1. Structural Shifts
   : The war triggered long-term changes in energy supply chains, with Europe diversifying from Russian energy and investing in LNG infrastructure/renewables. For defense, it reversed decades of declining real spending in Europe, creating a sustained growth environment.
2. Interdependencies
   : Energy volatility fueled global inflation, influencing central bank policies, while defense growth stemmed from both immediate wartime needs and long-term modernization plans.

• Risks
  :
  • Energy: Infrastructure attacks could cause short-term price spikes, straining global energy security [1].
  • Defense: Semiconductor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks may delay contract fulfillment [0].
• Opportunities
  :
  • Energy: LNG exporters (U.S., Qatar) and renewable energy firms benefited from Europe’s transition [0].
  • Defense: Companies specializing in advanced tech (hypersonic missiles, AI systems) saw increased demand [0].

Persistent Russian war aims in Ukraine during 2024 led to sustained energy market volatility due to supply disruption risks, accelerating Europe’s energy transition but increasing short-term costs. The defense sector experienced robust growth from elevated NATO and U.S. spending, driving higher valuations for major contractors. These impacts reflected structural changes in energy supply chains and defense spending patterns, with both risks and opportunities for market players.