2026 Market Growth Trade Outlook: BMO’s Schleif Forecasts Strong Performance

This analysis is based on a CNBC “Closing Bell Overtime” discussion [1][2][4] held on December 22, 2025, where Carol Schleif (BMO Private Wealth) and Bob Doll (Crossmark Global Investments) evaluated 2026 market trends. On the day of the discussion, US equity indices closed mostly higher: S&P 500 (+0.19%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.31%), NASDAQ Composite (-0.09%—a mild decline amid mixed growth stock performance) [0]. Growth-focused sectors outperformed defensive sectors, with Technology (+1.0187%) and Communication Services (+0.29556%) leading [0], aligning with Schleif’s emphasis on the growth trade.

Schleif’s outlook is consistent with December 2025 consensus forecasts:

• J.P. Morgan projects double-digit global equity gains in 2026 driven by AI capital expenditures and earnings expansion [6]
• Goldman Sachs expects 2.6% US economic growth (above consensus) with technology and AI as key tailwinds [7]
• Investopedia reports an average S&P 500 target of 7,269 (~5% upside from mid-December 2025 levels) supported by earnings growth [8]

Schleif also discussed the evolution of the AI trade, noting opportunities to broaden investments beyond early AI leaders to “second/third generation” assets, citing Oracle as an example [4].

1. Growth Sector Momentum Alignment
   : The positive performance of growth sectors (Technology, Communication Services) on the day of the discussion reflects ongoing investor interest in growth themes, reinforcing the relevance of Schleif’s outlook [0].
2. Consensus Validation
   : Multiple top-tier financial institutions (J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs) echo Schleif’s focus on AI and earnings growth as 2026 market drivers, enhancing the credibility of the growth trade thesis [6][7][8].
3. AI Trade Evolution
   : The mention of broadening AI investments (including Oracle) indicates a potential shift in investor strategies from early AI leaders to companies with emerging or underappreciated AI exposure [4].

• Opportunities
  :
  • Growth trade exposure, particularly in Technology and Communication Services sectors [0]
  • Diversified AI investments beyond early leaders, as highlighted by Schleif’s Oracle example [4]
  • Alignment with consensus forecasts for AI-driven market growth [6][7][8]
• Risks
  :
  • Increasing technology sector risks (warned by Vanguard), which could impact the growth trade [8]
  • Fed monetary policy changes that may affect growth stock valuations
  • Geopolitical tensions or trade disruptions disrupting market sentiment
  • 2026 corporate earnings falling short of consensus forecasts [6][7][8]

This analysis synthesizes insights from the CNBC discussion, short-term market data, and analyst consensus forecasts. Key takeaways include Schleif’s bullish 2026 outlook on the growth trade, alignment with top-tier forecasts for AI and earnings-driven growth, and the potential evolution of the AI investment landscape. While opportunities exist in growth sectors and broadened AI investments, decision-makers should monitor tech sector risks, monetary policy, and earnings performance closely.