Potential Market Impacts of Netanyahu-Trump Iran/Gaza Strategy Talks

Scheduled for Dec. 29, 2025, Israeli PM Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump will center on Iran relations and the next phase of Gaza plans, with Netanyahu expected to pitch new Iran strike proposals over concerns about Iran’s rebuilt defense systems, missile capabilities, and nuclear enrichment facilities [1-4]. Over the past 10 trading days, major defense stocks have gained consistently, likely driven by expectations of potential military actions or increased defense spending: Boeing (BA) rose 8.08% to $216.93, Lockheed Martin (LMT) 2.01% to $484.45, and Northrop Grumman (NOC) 5.28% to $584.66 [0]. As of Dec. 24, 2025, Brent crude stood at $62.48/bbl and WTI at $58.51/bbl [5], with recent gains from Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine tensions—though further increases could follow if Iran-related tensions escalate, particularly if oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. Global markets show mixed resilience: the S&P 500 nears 7,000 [6], while gold hits a record high of $4,500/bbl amid safe-haven demand [7].

1. Defense sector gains reflect forward-looking investor anticipation of geopolitical policy shifts, not just current events.
2. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical vulnerability for global oil markets; any disruption could trigger sharp price spikes.
3. Gold’s record high indicates broader market concern about geopolitical uncertainty, even as major indices like the S&P 500 show near-term stability.

• Sudden oil price spikes from Iran-related tensions or Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
• Increased market volatility around the meeting’s outcome.
• Unpredictable geopolitical escalation.

• Further defense sector gains if the meeting leads to increased military spending or coordinated actions.
• Continued safe-haven demand for assets like gold amid uncertainty.

All scenarios are speculative, as the meeting has not yet occurred and geopolitical events are inherently unpredictable.

The Dec. 29 Netanyahu-Trump meeting focuses on Iran and Gaza strategy, with Netanyahu expected to propose Iran strike plans. Major defense stocks have gained amid speculation, oil prices are vulnerable to escalation, and gold has reached a record high as a safe haven. Market impacts will depend on the meeting’s specific outcomes, and investors should prepare for potential volatility.