2026 Fed Chair Succession "Endgame": Analysis of Contenders and Market Implications

This analysis draws from a CNBC Squawk Box segment featuring Steve Liesman (2025-12-22) focused on the “Fed chair endgame”—the final decision-making phase for Jerome Powell’s successor (term ends May 2026 [3]). Three primary contenders have emerged: Kevin Warsh (former Fed governor), Kevin Hassett (former Council of Economic Advisers chair), and Christopher Waller (current Fed governor [1][2]). Prediction market Kalshi identifies Warsh as the frontrunner for President Trump’s nomination [2], while a spot poll linked to Liesman’s segment shows 81% stakeholder support for Waller but only 36% expectation he will be selected [1], revealing a disconnect between sentiment and perceived likelihood. The “endgame” phase includes ongoing administration interviews [2], with a nomination expected in early 2026 [3].

1. Candidate Background Diversity
   : Contenders represent distinct policy backgrounds (financial markets expertise, fiscal policy focus, monetary implementation experience), suggesting potential for meaningful shifts in Fed strategy [1][2].
2. Stakeholder-Selection Discrepancy
   : The gap between Waller’s support and perceived selection probability highlights uncertainty around the administration’s decision criteria, which may not align with public or market sentiment [1].
3. Prediction Market Influence
   : Kalshi’s front-runner designation for Warsh is likely shaping early market expectations, even amid the poll’s conflicting sentiment [2].

• Risks
  : Market volatility could rise as investors await clarification on the new chair’s monetary policy stance (e.g., interest rate direction, inflation targeting). Uncertainty around the nominee’s regulatory approach may also affect financial sector sentiment [3].
• Opportunities
  : Investors monitoring candidate policy positions may identify pricing inefficiencies ahead of the formal nomination. However, this requires careful tracking of campaign or interview statements to gauge potential policy shifts [1].

• Succession Timeline
  : Jerome Powell’s Fed chair term expires in May 2026, with a nomination expected in early 2026 [3].
• Leading Contenders
  : Kevin Warsh (prediction market frontrunner), Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller [1][2].
• Market Indicators
  : Kalshi shows Warsh in the lead; a spot poll shows 81% support for Waller but low selection expectation [1][2].
• Event Source
  : CNBC Squawk Box segment featuring Steve Liesman, published December 22, 2025.

Information gaps include exact details of the YouTube segment (due to crawl limitations), formal nomination timeline, and poll methodology [1].