Retail Investor Sentiment on QQQ Santa Rally and Bullish Options: Implications for 2026 Tech Market Expectations

This analysis is based on social media data indicating retail investor enthusiasm for QQQ’s Santa Rally potential, particularly through a bullish options strategy targeting the January 2026 625 strike. Market data shows QQQ and the Nasdaq-100 (^NDX) both rose 0.91% between December 1 and December 22, 2025, with QQQ trading in a range of $600.41 to $627.61 and average daily volume of 54.46M [0]. Historical patterns reinforce the Santa Rally narrative: Citadel Securities data shows the S&P 500 rises 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, averaging 1.3% gains [2]. Tech stocks are currently leading the year-end rally [5], and Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. stocks will reach new records in 2026, driven by a 12% earnings-per-share jump for S&P 500 companies fueled by AI adoption and strong macroeconomic growth [3]. Retail investor bullish options positioning aligns with these institutional and historical trends, suggesting a broader consensus on tech’s short-term Santa Rally potential and long-term 2026 growth.

1. Consensus Bullish Sentiment
   : Retail enthusiasm for QQQ’s Santa Rally is not isolated; it mirrors institutional forecasts (Goldman Sachs) and historical seasonal patterns, signaling a shared expectation for sustained tech momentum into 2026.
2. Meaningful Upside Expectations
   : The January 2026 625 strike call (above QQQ’s December 22 price of $619.21) indicates retail investors anticipate not just a modest Santa Rally but meaningful QQQ upside over the next month, reflecting confidence in tech’s strength extending into the new year.
3. Tech as the 2026 Growth Driver
   : Tech’s leadership in the current year-end rally (vs. broader markets) implies retail sees the sector as the primary engine for market gains in 2026, aligning with Goldman’s AI-driven growth thesis.

• Risks
  :
  1. Data limitations: Specific volume and open interest data for the QQQ January 2026 625-strike call options are unavailable, limiting full analysis of positioning strength [0].
  2. Market volatility: Unexpected events could disrupt the seasonal Santa Rally and 2026 outlook [0].
  3. Conflicting forecasts: While Goldman Sachs is bullish, Citigroup has expressed skepticism about U.S. economic growth in 2026 [4].
• Opportunities
  :
  1. Santa Rally validation: If the historical Santa Rally pattern holds, it could reinforce bullish 2026 tech sentiment, driving further market gains.
  2. AI tailwinds: Goldman’s forecast of AI-powered earnings growth presents long-term growth potential for the tech sector [3].

QQQ and the Nasdaq-100 both rose 0.91% from December 1 to December 22, 2025 [0]. Historical Santa Rally data shows a 75% success rate with 1.3% average gains for the S&P 500 [2]. Tech stocks are leading the current year-end rally [5], and Goldman Sachs expects 12% 2026 earnings growth from AI and macroeconomic strength [3]. Retail investor bullish options positioning on QQQ reflects optimism about both the Santa Rally and 2026 tech market performance, but conflicting economic forecasts and data gaps warrant careful consideration.