Foresite Capital's $7 Million Investment in Alumis (ALMS): Investment Thesis and Valuation Impact

Based on my comprehensive research, I can now provide a detailed analysis of Foresite Capital’s investment in Alumis:

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Foresite Capital, led by Managing Director and Alumis Board Director James B. Tananbaum, executed a significant insider buying program in November-December 2025:

Transaction Date	Shares Purchased	Price Range	Transaction Value
Nov 17-19, 2025	507,874	$5.60 - $6.56	~$3.1 million
Nov 21, 2025	72,212	$7.38	~$533,000
Nov 20 - Dec 2, 2025 (other insiders)	803,000+	$7.20 - $7.79	~$4.2 million

Approximately 15.78 million shares held indirectly across multiple funds and affiliated entities [1][2][3].

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Foresite Capital’s timing was exceptionally strategic—the purchases occurred

the Phase 3 clinical results were announced, indicating a high-conviction bet based on:

Foresite likely had insider visibility into the ONWARD1 & ONWARD2 Phase 3 trials, which later proved highly successful:

• Primary and secondary endpoints met with high statistical significance
  in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis
• 65% of patients achieved PASI 90
  (90% improvement in skin clearance)
• 40%+ achieved PASI 100
  (complete skin clearance)
• Favorable safety and tolerability profile
  consistent with Phase 2 data [4][5]

Envudeucitinib (formerly ESK-001) demonstrated

, positioning it as a potential best-in-class oral treatment [4].

The investment thesis benefited from broader market validation of the TYK2 mechanism, following Bristol Myers Squibb’s success with Sotycti/Deucravacitinib—a key validation point for Alumis’s approach [6].

Beyond psoriasis, Alumis is advancing into

, with Phase 2b LUMUS topline data expected in Q3 2026—representing a massive additional market opportunity with significant unmet medical need [4][5].

Alumis’s

provides a competitive moat in identifying and developing next-generation targeted therapies for immune-mediated diseases [6].

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Purchase Price	Current Price ($21.09)	Return
$5.60 (Nov 17)	$21.09	+277%
$6.09 (Nov 17-19)	$21.09	+246%
$7.38 (Nov 21)	$21.09	+186%
$7.79 (Dec 2)	$21.09	+171%

Foresite Capital’s ~$3.6 million in November purchases has appreciated to approximately

at current prices—a remarkable in just 2 months [1][2][7].

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The combination of:

1. Foresite Capital’s substantial purchases
   (a 10% owner and board-affiliated investor)
2. Additional insider buying
   by Director Srinivas Akkaraju (~800,000 shares)
3. Subsequent Phase 3 success

…created a powerful

that contributed to ALMS stock’s extraordinary performance:

• +375%
  over 3 months
• +192%
  over 1 year
• +83.55%
  in the past month [7]

Post-Phase 3 results, analyst sentiment has been overwhelmingly positive:

• 7 analysts with Buy ratings (100% Buy consensus)
• Price target consensus: $36.00
  (+70.7% upside from current levels)
• Target range: $32.00 - $50.00
  [7]

Major firms including Morgan Stanley, Leerink Partners, Guggenheim, Wells Fargo, and HC Wainwright have all maintained or reinforced their positive ratings following the Phase 3 announcement [7].

Alumis recently completed a

(January 9, 2026), providing substantial runway to:

• Fund commercial preparation activities
• Advance the SLE (LUMUS) clinical program
• Potentially pursue strategic partnerships or acquisitions [8][9]

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Event	Timing	Impact
Phase 3 long-term data (ONWARD3)	2H 2026	Further validates durability
NDA Submission to FDA	2H 2026	Enables commercial launch pathway
Phase 2b LUMUS SLE data	Q3 2026	Potential $10B+ market expansion
Potential FDA Approval	2027	Major value inflection point

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Despite the strong investment thesis, investors should note:

• Pre-commercialization stage:
  No revenue from product sales yet
• Competitive landscape:
  Oral TYK2 inhibitors face competition from injectables and other oral agents
• Regulatory risk:
  FDA approval is not guaranteed despite positive Phase 3 data
• Valuation concerns:
  Current P/E of -8.96x reflects pre-profit status [7]

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Foresite Capital’s $7+ million investment in Alumis represents a

based on:

1. Confidence in clinical outcomes
   (Phase 3 success validates this thesis)
2. Best-in-disease potential
   of envudeucitinib
3. Multi-indication expansion opportunity
   (psoriasis → SLE)
4. Proprietary platform advantages

The insider buying activity, combined with exceptional clinical data, has dramatically re-rated ALMS stock. With a

and , the market is rewarding Foresite’s foresight—but investors should weigh the strong recent rally against upcoming catalysts (NDA filing, SLE data) when evaluating current valuations.

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[1] StockTitan - “Foresite funds boost Alumis (ALMS) stake with open-market buys” (https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ALMS/form-4-alumis-inc-insider-trading-activity-279b9d59a6c7.html)

[2] SecForm4 - “ALUMIS INC. (ALMS) - Insider Trading Form 4 Filings” (https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1847367.htm)

[3] StockTitan - “Form 4 ALUMIS INC. Insider Trading Activity” (https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ALMS/form-4-alumis-inc-insider-trading-activity-d943ff068e30.html)

[4] Alumis Investor Relations - “Alumis’ Envudeucitinib Delivers Leading Skin Clearance Among Next-Generation Oral Plaque Psoriasis Therapies in Phase 3 Program” (https://investors.alumis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/alumis-envudeucitinib-delivers-leading-skin-clearance-among-next)

[5] Alumis Q3 2025 Financial Results (https://investors.alumis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/alumis-reports-third-quarter-2025-financial-results-and)

[6] QuiverQuant - “Alumis Inc. Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering” (https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alumis+Inc.+Announces+Pricing+of+Upsized+Public+Offering+of+17.65+Million+Shares+at+%2417.00+Each)

[7]金灵API - Company Overview and Real-Time Quote for ALMS

[8] Alumis Investor Relations - “Alumis Announces Closing of Upsized Public Offering” (https://investors.alumis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/alumis-announces-closing-upsized-public-offering-and-full)

[9] BioSpace - “Alumis Announces Closing of Upsized Public Offering” (https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/alumis-announces-closing-of-upsized-public-offering-and-full-exercise-of-underwriters-option-to-purchase-additional-shares)