Investment Thesis for Alumis Inc. (ALMS)

Based on my comprehensive analysis of Alumis Inc. (ALMS) and the significant institutional investment by Foresite Labs, I can provide you with a detailed investment thesis.

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Foresite Labs, along with its affiliated fund Foresite Capital Management VI, has demonstrated strong conviction in Alumis through a series of substantial share purchases in November 2025. According to insider trading data, Foresite Labs acquired shares worth approximately $3.09 million, with multiple additional purchases ranging from $700,000 to $1.25 million during the same period [1][2]. As a 10% owner, Foresite Labs’ cumulative investment positions them as one of the company’s largest stakeholders, signaling deep institutional confidence in Alumis’ therapeutic pipeline and commercial potential.

This pattern of sustained buying at prices between $5.59 and $7.38 per share represents a significant capital commitment and reflects Foresite Labs’ belief in the company’s long-term value proposition [2].

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The centerpiece of Alumis’ investment thesis is the successful Phase 3 ONWARD clinical program for envudeucitinib (formerly ESK-001), a next-generation highly selective oral tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor. In January 2026, Alumis announced that both ONWARD1 and ONWARD2 trials met all primary and secondary endpoints with high statistical significance in patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis [3].

Endpoint	Results
PASI 75 at Week 16	74% of patients (vs. placebo p<0.0001)
sPGA 0/1 at Week 16	59% of patients (vs. placebo p<0.0001)
PASI 90 at Week 24	~65% of patients
PASI 100 at Week 24	>40% of patients
Superiority vs. apremilast	Confirmed on all PASI endpoints

The results demonstrated “leading skin clearance among next-generation oral plaque psoriasis therapies” with a favorable safety and tolerability profile consistent with the Phase 2 program [3][4]. Notably, the treatment achieved rapid onset of action with clear separation from placebo on PASI 90 as early as Week 4.

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Envudeucitinib addresses a substantial unmet need in the psoriasis treatment market, which affects more than 8 million adults in the United States [3]. As Dr. Andrew Blauvelt, a leading dermatologist, noted: “For individuals seeking the best chance for clearance, biologics have long been superior to oral therapies. But now, with these new data on envudeucitinib, we’re seeing an exciting possibility of a new oral drug for psoriasis that can deliver high levels of efficacy in a safe manner” [3].

• Oral administration
  vs. injectable biologics (improved patient compliance)
• Superior efficacy
  compared to existing oral options like apremilast
• Highly selective TYK2 inhibition
  minimizes off-target effects
• Once-daily dosing
  potential (under development)
• Broad pipeline potential
  across immune-mediated diseases

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Beyond psoriasis, Alumis is advancing envudeucitinib in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with topline Phase 2b LUMUS data expected in Q3 2026 [3]. Additionally, the company’s pipeline includes:

• A-005
  : A potentially first-in-class fully CNS-penetrant oral TYK2 inhibitor for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases (Phase 2 trial in multiple sclerosis anticipated H1 2026)
• Lonigutamab
  : Subcutaneous anti-IGF-1R therapy for thyroid eye disease

This diversified pipeline transforms Alumis from a single-catalyst biotech into a multi-asset platform company with expansion opportunities across approximately 20 immune-driven conditions identified through genomic analyses [3].

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The investment thesis is further reinforced by Wall Street analyst coverage:

Analyst	Rating	Price Target
HC Wainwright & Co.	Buy	Raised January 2026
Morgan Stanley	Overweight	$33 (raised Jan 2026)
Leerink Partners	Outperform	$32 (raised Jan 2026)
Guggenheim	Buy	Raised Jan 2026
Wells Fargo	Overweight	Maintained

— representing approximately from current levels [1].

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Alumis maintains a robust financial position:

• Cash position
  : $377.7 million as of September 30, 2025
• Runway
  : Expected to support operations through 2027
• Recent financing
  : Completed $300 million upsized public offering in January 2026 at $17 per share, strengthening the balance sheet for commercialization preparation [1]
• Current market cap
  : ~$2.20 billion

The company reported a Q3 2025 net loss of $110.8 million, with R&D expenses of $97.8 million driven by clinical trial acceleration — an appropriate investment given the upcoming value-driving milestones [5].

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The Phase 3 success has catalyzed extraordinary stock performance:

Period	Performance
1 Day	+7.82%
5 Days	+21.28%
1 Month	+83.55%
3 Months	+375.00%
YTD	+135.38%

The stock has rallied nearly 82% following the Phase 3 data announcement, reflecting market recognition of the clinical and commercial value created by the trial success [4].

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Risk Factor	Mitigation
FDA regulatory approval	Strong Phase 3 data provides solid foundation
Commercial execution	Partnership or sales team build required
Competitive landscape	Bristol-Myers Myers’ Sotyktu (deucravacitinib) already approved; envudeucitinib must demonstrate differentiation
Clinical pipeline setbacks	Diversified pipeline reduces binary dependency

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Alumis represents a compelling late-stage biopharmaceutical investment opportunity built on:

1. Validated science
   : Highly selective TYK2 inhibition with proven clinical efficacy
2. Near-term catalyst
   : NDA submission planned for H2 2026 following successful Phase 3 trials
3. Institutional alignment
   : Foresite Labs’ multi-million dollar investment signals insider conviction
4. Pipeline optionality
   : Expansion potential in SLE, MS, and other immune-mediated diseases
5. Financial adequacy
   : Sufficient capital to reach multiple value-creating milestones
6. Analyst endorsement
   : 100% buy rating consensus with ~70% upside potential

The combination of de-risked clinical data, strong institutional ownership, experienced management, and a diversified pipeline positions Alumis as a leading contender in the next-generation oral immunology therapeutics landscape.

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[1] GuruFocus - Alumis Company Overview and News (https://www.gurufocus.com/news/4104683/alumis-announces-closing-of-upsized-public-offering)

[2] Finviz - ALMS Insider Trading Data (https://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ALMS)

[3] Alumis Inc. SEC 8-K Filing - Phase 3 ONWARD Results (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1847367/000110465926001073/tm262035d1_8k.htm)

[4] PharmaPhorum - Alumis Phase 3 Success Coverage (https://pharmaphorum.com/news/alumis-shoots-its-sotyktu-rival-aces-psoriasis-trials)

[5] Alumis Inc. Q3 2025 Financial Results SEC Filing (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1847367/000184736725000048/alms-20251113x8k.htm)