U.S. Markets Rally on Geopolitical Developments: Intel Surges 11%, Netflix Falls 6.8% - January 21, 2026

The U.S. stock markets delivered a significant broad-based rally on January 21, 2026, reversing the previous day’s pullback and demonstrating strong investor confidence driven by favorable geopolitical developments. The S&P 500 closed at 6,875.61, gaining 0.95%, while the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.90% to 23,224.82 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.09% to 49,077.24 [0][2]. The Russell 2000 led with a 1.35% gain, suggesting broad market participation beyond large-cap indices.

This performance followed a notable pullback on January 20, 2026, when the S&P 500 declined 1.00%, the NASDAQ fell 0.81%, and the Dow dropped 1.05%, making the rebound particularly significant as a recovery move [0][2].

The primary driver of market gains was President Donald Trump’s announcements at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Trump announced the suspension of punitive tariffs on eight European nations that had been scheduled to take effect on February 1, 2026, eliminating a significant source of market uncertainty [3][4][5]. Simultaneously, Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reached “the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland,” which helped facilitate the tariff relief [3][4][5].

The market response was immediate and positive, with Dow futures jumping 58 points shortly after the announcement [2]. However, it’s important to note that EU officials subsequently froze approval of a U.S.-EU trade deal “indefinitely” in response to earlier Greenland-related threats, indicating that underlying transatlantic tensions remain unresolved despite the positive developments [6].

emerged as the standout performer, surging approximately 11% to close at $54.25—its highest level since January 2022. The stock has gained an extraordinary 185.53% over the past 343 days, reflecting growing investor confidence in CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s turnaround strategy [0][9]. Analysts anticipate the company’s data center business will report revenue growth of over 30% to $4.43 billion, while major investments from Nvidia ($5 billion) and SoftBank ($2 billion) have strengthened the company’s balance sheet [9][10]. The market is also pricing in an expected server CPU price increase of at least 10% in 2026 [10]. However, risks remain including ongoing competition from AMD in the PC market, potential PC demand weakness due to memory chip shortages, and foundry business execution challenges [9][11].

experienced the most significant decline among major movers, falling 6.8% to close at $85.36 despite beating fourth-quarter earnings estimates narrowly (56 cents vs. 55 cents expected) [7][8]. The stock has still appreciated 26.65% over the past 343 days, but analysts expressed concern about several metrics. The company announced it surpassed 325 million subscribers and generated $1.5 billion in advertising revenue in 2025, representing 2.5x growth; however, this figure fell below the $2.5 billion consensus estimate [7][8]. Multiple analysts responded by cutting price targets, with Canaccord Genuity reducing its target from $152.50 to $125 [8]. Concerns about slowing momentum in average viewing hours per member and uncertainty surrounding the pending Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition further weighed on sentiment [7][8].

rose 3% to close at $110.96, building on a 137.75% gain over the past 343 days, after management raised its 2026 earnings guidance to record levels [7]. The company projected adjusted EPS of $12-$14 for 2026, compared to analyst expectations of $13.16, while its first-quarter per-share earnings forecast of $1.00-$1.50 slightly exceeded the $1.13 consensus [7].

dipped 0.8% to close at $218.01 but remains up 32.26% over the past 343 days [0][12]. Despite the modest decline, the company reported fourth-quarter profit that exceeded expectations and provided 2026 sales guidance of $99.5-$100.5 billion, beating the $98.9 billion analyst estimate [12]. Strong performance from key drugs including Darzalex (blood cancer therapy) and Tremfya (psoriasis treatment), combined with 7.5% growth in the medical devices business to $8.8 billion, underpinned the positive outlook [12]. Management noted that the impact of the Trump drug pricing agreement, described as a “hundreds of millions” hit, has already been factored into guidance [12].

Sector analysis revealed a predominantly positive market environment, with 10 of 11 sectors posting gains [0]. Consumer Defensive (+1.91%) led all sectors, followed by Healthcare (+1.84%) and Consumer Cyclical (+1.79%), suggesting a defensive tilt among investors despite the risk-on sentiment from geopolitical developments. Communication Services (+1.46%) and Basic Materials (+1.17%) also performed well, while Technology’s modest gain of +0.71% contrasts with Intel’s outsized 11% performance, indicating selective buying within the tech sector [0]. Utilities (-0.24%) was the only declining sector, consistent with the risk-on environment that typically pressures defensive sectors.

The market action on January 21, 2026, reveals several important dynamics that investors should understand. First, the geopolitical developments demonstrate how quickly sentiment can shift in response to policy announcements, with tariff relief serving as a powerful catalyst for broad-based buying. However, the EU’s subsequent freeze on trade deal approval underscores the fragility of these diplomatic arrangements and suggests that underlying tensions persist beneath the surface [6].

Second, Intel’s remarkable 11% pre-earnings rally reflects growing market conviction in the company’s turnaround narrative under CEO Lip-Bu Tan. The stock’s advance to its highest level in four years, combined with substantial investments from Nvidia and SoftBank, suggests institutional confidence in Intel’s competitive position in AI and data center markets [9][10]. However, the upcoming January 22, 2026 earnings report will be a critical test of whether this optimism is justified by fundamental results.

Third, Netflix’s decline despite meeting or beating estimates highlights how market expectations have evolved. The narrow EPS beat and advertising revenue shortfall demonstrate that investors are increasingly focused on growth quality metrics beyond subscriber counts [7][8]. The pending Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition adds another layer of strategic complexity that could reshape Netflix’s competitive positioning in the streaming landscape.

Fourth, the Russell 2000’s strong outperformance (+1.35%) suggests rotation toward smaller-cap and potentially more speculative investments, which may indicate elevated risk appetite that could reverse quickly if geopolitical developments turn negative.

The analysis reveals several risk factors warranting attention.

remains elevated despite positive developments, as evidenced by the EU Parliament’s indefinite freeze on trade deal approval in response to Greenland-related threats [6]. Investors should recognize that transatlantic relations remain strained and that future policy shifts could reintroduce market volatility.

represents a significant concern despite the company’s strong stock performance. The semiconductor industry faces intense competitive pressure from AMD and ARM architectures, while foundry operations and manufacturing yields remain critical challenges that could impact the turnaround narrative [9][11].

have materialized through slowing engagement metrics and advertising revenue that fell below consensus expectations [7][8]. While the WBD acquisition could prove transformative, the integration risks and timeline uncertainty create near-term headwinds.

is evident in Intel’s ability to generate a single-digit percentage gain in the Technology sector through its 11% individual stock move, highlighting how mega-cap technology stocks can drive index performance and create potential volatility [0].

Several opportunity windows emerge from the analysis. Intel’s upcoming earnings report on January 22, 2026, represents a potential catalyst for continued momentum if the company delivers on data center revenue expectations and provides positive 2026 guidance [9][10]. The tariff suspension creates a more favorable trade environment for companies with significant European exposure, potentially benefiting industrials and consumer cyclicals in the coming weeks.

United Airlines’ record 2026 guidance and Johnson & Johnson’s strong fundamentals suggest these companies may continue to reward investors if execution remains on track [7][12]. The broad-based market participation across indices and sectors indicates healthy risk appetite that could persist if geopolitical developments remain constructive.

This analysis is based on CNBC’s U.S. Markets Edition broadcast on January 21, 2026 [1], incorporating data from multiple financial news sources and analytical databases [0][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12].

The U.S. stock markets delivered a significant broad-based rally on January 21, 2026, with major indices gaining 0.9-1.35% following positive geopolitical developments including the suspension of European tariffs and a Greenland deal framework. Intel’s 11% pre-earnings surge to four-year highs reflected growing confidence in the company’s turnaround strategy, while Netflix’s 6.8% decline despite beating estimates highlighted investor focus on growth quality metrics. United Airlines and Johnson & Johnson provided constructive 2026 guidance despite modest stock price movements.

Key factors to monitor include the January 22, 2026 Intel earnings report, EU policy responses to ongoing trade negotiations, and broader earnings season developments that will shape market sentiment in the coming weeks.