TFR Capital Q3 2025 13F Filing: AI-Focused Investment Analysis

Based on the comprehensive data gathered from TFR Capital’s latest Form 13F filing, I will now provide a detailed investment analysis.

---

TFR Capital, LLC has disclosed a substantial investment portfolio totaling approximately

across in their latest Form 13F filing for Q3 2025. The fund demonstrates a distinctly technology-focused investment thesis with significant AI/ML positioning, while maintaining diversification through ETF allocations and exposure to healthcare, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors [1][2].

---

Rank	Ticker	Company	Portfolio %	Market Value ($M)
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	6.57%	$19.68M
2	MSFT	Microsoft Corporation	6.23%	$18.65M
3	AAPL	Apple Inc.	4.62%	$13.85M
4	RWL	Invesco S&P 500 Revenue Weighted ETF	3.25%	$9.73M
5	AMZN	Amazon.com Inc.	2.88%	$8.64M
6	GOOG	Alphabet Inc. (Class C)	2.51%	$7.51M
7	NFLX	Netflix Inc.	2.49%	$7.47M
8	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	2.49%	$7.46M
9	IVV	iShares Core S&P 500 ETF	2.44%	$7.29M
10	META	Meta Platforms Inc.	2.36%	$7.07M

The top 10 holdings represent approximately

of total portfolio value, indicating a concentrated core position with significant mega-cap technology exposure [1][2].

---

TFR Capital’s portfolio reveals an unambiguous conviction in the AI supercycle thesis:

• NVIDIA (NVDA)
  : The fund increased its position by
  105,490 shares
  (+46.0% trade value increase), making it the largest portfolio holding. This represents the fund’s single-largest conviction play [1][2].

• Broadcom (AVGO)
  : Position increased by
  22,610 shares
  (+58.9% trade value). Broadcom’s custom silicon and networking infrastructure plays are critical to AI data center deployment [1].

• Lam Research (LRCX)
  :
  286.4% increase
  in stake (5,980 new shares added, total 8,068 shares, ~$1.08M value). Lam Research manufactures semiconductor fabrication equipment essential for advanced chip production [3].

• Arista Networks (ANET)
  : Position grew by
  17,010 shares
  (+39.0% trade value). Arista’s cloud networking solutions are increasingly vital for AI workload infrastructure [1].

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
  : Dramatic
  380.6% increase
  in stake (10,688 shares, ~$1.95M). Palantir has been one of 2025’s top performers, surging over 125% on AI adoption momentum and increased defense spending [3][4].

• Microsoft (MSFT)
  : Position expanded by
  36,020 shares
  (+11.0% trade value). MSFT’s Azure cloud platform and Copilot AI integrations represent critical enterprise AI infrastructure [1].

The fund maintains significant positions across cloud hyperscalers:

• Amazon (AMZN)
  : +39,360 shares (+17.2% trade value) - AWS maintains dominant cloud market share with extensive AI service offerings [1].

• Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL)
  : Combined Class C and Class A positions total ~
  $12.56M
  (4.20% portfolio weight), with GOOG position up +86.7% and GOOGL up +88.8% in trade value [1].

---

Sector	Approximate Weight	Key Positions
Technology	~45-50%	NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AVGO, GOOG
ETFs (Broad Market)	~15-18%	IVV, QQQ, VOO, SPY, RWL
Healthcare	~5-6%	LLY, ABBV, ISRG, VRTX
Consumer Discretionary	~5-6%	AMZN, NFLX, TSLA, TJX
Financials	~3-4%	JPM, BRKB, MA, V, ICE
Industrials/Energy	~2-3%	GEV, TT

---

Ticker	Δ % of Portfolio	Investment Thesis
NVDA	+105.49k	AI chip leadership
BSCP	+340.85k	Revenue-weighted exposure
BSCQ	+169.86k	Quality factor tilt
GEV	+105.3%	Energy transition/infrastructure
GOOG	+86.7%	AI search & cloud
AVGO	+58.9%	AI chips & networking
NFLX	+62.29k	Streaming & content
ANET	+39.0%	Cloud networking
TSLA	+31.0%	EV & AI autonomy

Ticker	Change	Notes
GOOGL	-20.78k	Slight reduction, still maintained
IBTF	-0.3%	Minor ETF rebalancing
BSJP	-0.1%	Minor ETF rebalancing

The fund has

to nearly all positions, indicating a growing portfolio or increased conviction rather than rebalancing [1][2].

---

TFR Capital’s multi-hundred percent increases in semiconductor-related positions (NVDA, LRCX) and AI software platforms (PLTR) suggest the fund believes the AI investment theme has further runway. The concentration in companies providing AI “picks and shovels” (chips, equipment, networking) is notable [1][3][4].

: Consider complementary positions in AI infrastructure beneficiaries that may benefit from continued enterprise and government AI spending, particularly in:

• Semiconductor equipment manufacturers
• Data center REITs and infrastructure plays
• Enterprise AI software providers

The significant allocation to revenue-weighted ETFs (RWL, BSCP, BSCQ) indicates TFR Capital seeks exposure to companies with strong top-line fundamentals while maintaining the flexibility to express specific convictions in individual securities [1].

: For risk-conscious investors, revenue-weighted or quality-factor ETFs may offer more defensive exposure than traditional market-cap weighted alternatives.

The large position in Palantir (PLTR) and increased focus on government/enterprise data analytics may represent a hedge against potential defense spending increases. PLTR’s government segment typically benefits from defense and intelligence budgets [3][4].

: Government-focused AI/analytics companies may offer asymmetric upside if defense and intelligence budgets expand under various policy scenarios.

With approximately

and technology comprising nearly half the portfolio, TFR Capital carries meaningful concentration risk. Any significant correction in mega-cap technology could materially impact returns [1][2].

: Investors considering replicating this strategy should be aware of sector concentration and consider appropriate position sizing or hedging strategies.

The fund’s additions to

, , and alongside high-growth positions suggests a GARP approach balancing quality defensive names with higher-beta growth exposure [1].

---

The Q3 2025 institutional positioning data indicates a broader market trend of technology overweighting. According to analysis of institutional 13F filings, technology continues to dominate incremental S&P 500 earnings, leaving benchmark-relative managers with limited ability to reduce exposure without incurring tracking error penalties [5]. TFR Capital’s aggressive additions appear to align with this structural institutional positioning rather than represent extreme contrarian bets.

---

1. Clear AI/Technology Thesis
   : TFR Capital’s portfolio construction demonstrates conviction in AI infrastructure and semiconductor companies as the primary driver of future returns.

2. Semiconductor Supercycle Positioning
   : Dramatic increases in NVDA and LRCX suggest belief that the semiconductor cycle has further to run.

3. Balanced Risk Approach
   : Despite technology concentration, the fund maintains ETF diversification and quality company exposure to manage overall portfolio risk.

4. Growth Orientation
   : Nearly all positions show increases, indicating a growth-oriented stance rather than defensive repositioning.

5. Government/Aerospace Exposure
   : Positions in GEV and PLTR may benefit from increased infrastructure and defense spending themes.

---

[1] HedgeFollow - TFR Capital LLC Holdings (https://hedgefollow.com/funds/TFR+Capital+LLC)

[2] StockZoa - TFR Capital 13F filings and top holdings (https://stockzoa.com/fund/tfr-capital-llc/)

[3] MarketBeat - TFR Capital grows stock holdings in Palantir Technologies (https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-tfr-capital-llc-grows-stock-holdings-in-palantir-technologies-inc-pltr-2026-01-25/)

[4] MarketBeat - Lam Research holdings increased by TFR Capital (https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-lam-research-corporation-lrcx-holdings-increased-by-tfr-capital-llc-2026-01-25/)

[5] Medium/Tarifa Beach - Inside the Q3 2025 13F Filings (https://medium.com/@tarifabeach/inside-the-q3-2025-13f-filings-the-market-forces-actually-driving-institutional-positioning-2c0db26b17ac)

---

Note: Form 13F filings reflect positions as of the quarter end and are filed approximately 45 days after quarter end. Current positions may have changed. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.