J.P. Morgan's Gold Price Forecast: $6,300/oz by End-2026

---

As of February 2, 2026, gold is trading at approximately

, representing a remarkable from levels around $2,050/oz at the start of 2025 [0]. J.P. Morgan’s forecast of $6,300/oz by year-end 2026 implies a from current levels, making it one of the most bullish projections from a major financial institution.

---

Central bank buying represents the

underpinning J.P. Morgan’s upgraded outlook:

• Q4 2025 purchases
  : Central banks acquired approximately
  230 metric tons
  of gold, maintaining robust demand even as prices exceeded $4,000/oz [1]
• Full-year 2025 total
  : Aggregate purchases reached approximately
  863 metric tons
  , demonstrating that structural demand remains intact despite elevated prices [1]
• 2026 projections
  : J.P. Morgan expects central bank demand of approximately
  800 metric tons
  in 2026, citing an ongoing “clean, structural, continued diversification trend” [1]

This buying spree reflects a deliberate strategy by central banks—particularly in emerging markets—to reduce dependence on US dollar-denominated reserves and diversify their portfolios with a neutral, politically unencumbered asset.

Beyond official sector demand, J.P. Morgan identifies

as a critical支撑因素:

• ETF holdings growth
  : Physical gold-backed ETFs have seen continuous net inflows as investors seek exposure to the precious metal
• Physical bar and coin demand
  : Robust retail demand for physical gold remains consistent across price levels
• Portfolio allocation shift
  : J.P. Morgan’s research indicates that private investors could increase their average gold allocation from
  3% to 4.6%
  of total portfolio value [2]

A shift to the 4.6% allocation level would, according to J.P. Morgan’s modeling, push gold prices into the

—representing a more than 40% premium to current levels [2].

Gold’s role as a

has been reinforced by an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape:

• Rising geopolitical tensions have sustained demand for gold as a portfolio hedge
• Households are rotating away from long-duration bonds toward gold as an alternative store of value
• The precious metal serves as a hedge against a “wide range of macro and geopolitical risks” [1][2]
• Retail traders have shown preference for gold over Bitcoin, with gold demonstrating stronger liquidity and market breadth [2]

J.P. Morgan emphasizes that the current gold rally is not merely cyclical but reflects

in reserve management:

• Central banks are actively seeking to reduce dollar concentration in their foreign exchange reserves
• Gold provides a “clean” alternative that is free from the sovereign risks associated with fiat currencies
• The bank describes this as a “continued diversification trend” that is likely to persist beyond 2026 [1]

---

Portfolio Type	Current Gold Exposure	Recommended Exposure	Target Allocation
Conservative	1-2%	3-4%	4-5%
Balanced	2-3%	4-5%	5-6%
Growth/Aggressive	3-4%	5-6%	6-8%

1. Physical Gold (Bars/Coins)
   : Suitable for long-term investors seeking direct ownership and maximum liquidity during crisis periods
2. Gold ETFs (e.g., GLD, IAU)
   : Offer convenient, liquid exposure with lower storage costs
3. Gold Mining Equities
   : Provide leveraged exposure to gold prices with additional operational leverage; however, mining-specific risks must be considered
4. Gold-Linked Notes/Certificates
   : Alternative structures that may offer tax advantages in certain jurisdictions

• Core Position
  : Establish a
  3-4% base allocation
  in gold-related instruments
• Tactical Additions
  : Consider adding 1-2% on price pullbacks, particularly if gold tests support levels around $2,500/oz
• Stop-Loss Considerations
  : Given the elevated volatility (approximately 13.8% annualized), position sizing should account for potential
  20-30% drawdowns
  [0]

---

Risk Factor	Potential Impact
Policy Reversal	A sudden shift in Federal Reserve policy toward higher real rates could pressure gold prices
Geopolitical De-escalation	Resolution of major geopolitical tensions could reduce safe-haven demand
Central Bank Selling	Unexpected coordinated selling by central banks could overwhelm demand
USD Strength	A sustained US dollar rally could make gold more expensive for foreign buyers
Technical Overextension	Momentum traders have driven gold into “overbought territory,” increasing vulnerability to corrections [2]

Gold has demonstrated significant price swings, with the 52-week range spanning from approximately $2,045 to $2,800/oz [0]. Investors should anticipate continued volatility and position accordingly.

---

Under the most optimistic scenario, J.P. Morgan projects gold could reach

if private investor allocation reaches the target 4.6% level [2]. This would represent a from current prices and would require:

• Continued central bank buying at or above 800t/year
• Sustained geopolitical risk premium
• Meaningful rotation from bonds into gold by institutional investors
• Broad-based retail adoption as a portfolio diversifier

---

J.P. Morgan’s $6,300/oz forecast for year-end 2026 rests on a confluence of supportive factors: unprecedented central bank demand, accelerating private investor inflows, persistent geopolitical risks, and structural reserve diversification trends. While the magnitude of the projected move is substantial, the underlying demand dynamics suggest the rally has meaningful fundamental support.

For investors, a

with a target gold allocation of appears prudent, with tactical opportunities to add on price weakness. The investment thesis remains robust over the medium term, though investors should remain cognizant of near-term volatility and potential policy headwinds.

---

[1] Investing.com - “JPM Raises Gold Price Forecast on ‘Enough Demand from Central Banks, Investors’” (https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/jpm-raises-gold-price-forecast-on-enough-demand-from-central-banks-investors-4477853)

[2] CNBC - “Gold Continues to Surge. JPMorgan Sees a Scenario Where It Tops $8,000” (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/29/gold-continues-to-surge-jpmorgan-sees-a-scenario-where-it-tops-8000.html)

[0] Gold Market Data and Technical Analysis via 金灵AI Financial Database