GLP-1 Market Transformation: Super Bowl Advertising Reshaping Competitive Landscape Between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly

Based on my comprehensive analysis, here is a detailed assessment of how mass-market advertising through Super Bowl commercials is reshaping the competitive landscape and valuations for GLP-1 manufacturers:

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The shift to mass-market advertising, exemplified by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly’s Super Bowl commercials for their weight-loss drugs (Wegovy and Zepbound), represents a

in pharmaceutical marketing. This transition is accelerating market share reallocation and creating a significant between the two dominant players, with Eli Lilly emerging as the clear beneficiary of this competitive dynamic.

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Multiple GLP-1 manufacturers are doubling down on Super Bowl advertising this year, signaling a departure from traditional pharmaceutical marketing approaches [1]. Novo Nordisk, Boehringer Ingelheim, Hims & Hers, Novartis, Ro, and Lilly are all running spots during the Big Game on NBC and Peacock [2]. This represents an

in a single event, traditionally dominated by consumer goods and entertainment brands.

Factor	Traditional Pharma Marketing	Mass-Market Approach
Target Audience	HCPs (Physicians)	Direct-to-Consumer
Channel Mix	Medical journals, conferences	TV, digital, Super Bowl
Messaging	Clinical efficacy data	Lifestyle transformation
Brand Building	Minimal	Significant investment

Novo Nordisk’s Super Bowl ad campaign is particularly notable as part of a

following significant market share losses. The company is promoting its new with a star-studded advertisement, aiming to recapture consumer mindshare and differentiate from injectable competitors [3].

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The US incretin market has undergone a dramatic

over the past year:

Company	2024 Market Share	2025 Market Share	2026 (Est.)
Eli Lilly	~50%	>60%	~65-70%
Novo Nordisk	~50%	39%	~30%

Eli Lilly has decisively overtaken Novo Nordisk, with its prescription trends remaining robust across both diabetes and obesity markets [4]. This shift is attributed to several factors:

1. Superior clinical profile
   : Studies show Lilly’s tirzepatide induces nearly
   50% more weight loss
   than Novo’s semaglutide [5]
2. Aggressive market positioning
   : Lilly’s rapid expansion and marketing investments
3. Pill formulation advantage
   : Novo beat Lilly to market with oral semaglutide, but Lilly’s orforglipron is launching Q2 2026

A new competitive threat has emerged from

offering compounded GLP-1 medications at significantly lower prices. Hims & Hers announced a $49/month compounded semaglutide pill, disrupting pricing dynamics [6]. While the FDA subsequently announced a crackdown on illegal copycat drugs [7], this threat has forced both major players to reconsider their marketing and pricing strategies.

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The competitive dynamics have created a

:

Metric	Novo Nordisk (NVO)	Eli Lilly (LLY)
1-Month Return	-15.79%	-4.50%
6-Month Return	-2.30%	+65.12%
1-Year Return	-44.87%	+20.48%
3-Year Return	-31.75%	+211.52%
Market Cap	$211.71B	$948.61B

Novo Nordisk’s stock has

year-over-year, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars in value [8]. In contrast, Eli Lilly has surged past the $900 billion market cap threshold, now worth over than the next largest healthcare company [9].

The market is pricing these companies at dramatically different valuations:

Multiple	NVO	LLY	Premium/Discount
P/E Ratio	12.82x	46.04x	LLY trading at 3.6x premium
P/B Ratio	6.77x	39.94x	LLY trading at 5.9x premium
EV/OCF	11.90x	61.10x	LLY trading at 5.1x premium

This

reflects market expectations: Novo Nordisk expects sales to , its first annual decline in nearly a decade [10], while Eli Lilly projects for 2026 [11].

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• EPS: $1.00 actual vs $0.90 estimate (+11.11% surprise)
• Revenue: $12.42B actual vs $11.86B estimate (+4.70% surprise)
• 2026 Guidance: Sales decline of 5-13%
  due to pricing pressures and competition

• EPS: $7.54 actual vs $6.91 estimate (+9.12% surprise)
• Revenue: $19.29B actual vs $17.94B estimate (+7.51% surprise)
• 2026 Guidance: Revenue of $81.5B (+25%), EPS of $34.25 (+41%)

The divergence is reflected in analyst ratings:

Company	Consensus	Price Target	Upside Potential
NVO	Hold	$45.00	-5.5% downside
LLY	Buy	$1,255.00	+18.6% upside

Multiple analyst upgrades followed Lilly’s stellar Q4 results [12], while Novo Nordisk has faced downgrades from firms including Argus Research and HSBC [13].

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The GLP-1 weight-loss drug market is experiencing

:

Year	Market Size (USD Billions)	CAGR
2024	$13.84B	—
2025	~$22B	—
2026E	~$35B	~18.5%
2030	~$100B+	~18.5%

J.P. Morgan Research forecasts the

, driven equally by diabetes and obesity usage [14]. This represents one of the largest growth opportunities in pharmaceutical history.

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1. Massive Reach
   : Super Bowl provides unrivaled audience scale, reaching over 100 million viewers
2. Brand Building
   : Transforms GLP-1 drugs from clinical treatments to lifestyle products
3. Stigma Reduction
   : Direct-to-consumer messaging addresses weight-loss drug stigma
4. Competitive Differentiation
   : Creates top-of-mind awareness in a crowded market

However, this strategy carries significant risks:

Risk	Impact
Regulatory Scrutiny	Potential restrictions under new health leadership
Pricing Pressure	Mass-market success may necessitate price reductions
Supply Chain	Increased demand could strain manufacturing capacity
Side Effect Concerns	UK regulator warnings about rare vision loss risks [15]

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• Successfully launch oral GLP-1 to compete with Lilly’s incoming orforglipron
• Defend market share through aggressive marketing and pricing
• Address regulatory challenges around compounded drugs
• Leverage Super Bowl ad to reverse negative sentiment

: Trading at just 12.8x earnings, NVO appears relative to its franchise value. However, the discount reflects legitimate competitive concerns.

• Strong momentum with Zepbound and Mounjaro
• Superior clinical profile driving market share gains
• Government agreement expanding Medicare/Medicaid coverage [16]
• Joint venture with NVIDIA for drug discovery

: At 46x earnings, LLY carries a significant premium. Success must continue to justify the multiple.

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The shift to mass-market advertising like Super Bowl commercials

the GLP-1 competitive landscape. Key takeaways:

1. Market share is consolidating
   around Eli Lilly, which is “constantly taking share” from Novo Nordisk [17]
2. Valuation divergence
   reflects growth expectations: LLY commands a 3.6x P/E premium to NVO
3. Mass-market advertising
   is a strategic necessity to build brand loyalty in a market that will reach $100B+ by 2030
4. Oral formulations
   represent the next battleground, with both companies investing heavily
5. New entrants
   (Hims & Hers, telehealth platforms) are disrupting pricing, forcing legacy players to adapt

The Super Bowl advertising pivot signals that GLP-1 manufacturers view these drugs as

, not just pharmaceuticals. This paradigm shift favors companies with superior brand building capabilities and marketing resources—advantages that currently favor in this transformative market.

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[1] Digiday - “GLP-1 draws pharma advertisers to double down on the Super Bowl” (https://digiday.com/media-buying/glp-1-draws-pharma-advertisers-to-double-down-on-the-super-bowl/)

[2] Ad Age - “Health care, pharma in 2026 Super Bowl: Hims, Ro, Novo Nordisk” (https://adage.com/super-bowl/aa-health-care-hims-ro-novo-nordisk-boehringer-ingelheim/)

[3] Bloomberg - “Novo to Air Star-Studded Super Bowl Ad Amid Turnaround Push” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-06/novo-to-air-star-studded-super-bowl-ad-amid-turnaround-push)

[4] MarketBeat - “Eli Lilly Booms, Then Busts: Stellar Guidance vs Hims Undercut” (https://www.marketbeat.com/originals/eli-lilly-booms-then-busts-stellar-guidance-vs-hims-undercut/)

[5] Guru Focus - Multiple market coverage articles (https://www.gurufocus.com/news/)

[6] Futurism - “Novo Nordisk Furious at $49 Knockoff Ozempic Pill” (https://futurism.com/health-medicine/novo-nordisk-ozempic-knockoff-pill)

[7] Financial Times - “US announces crackdown on copycat weight-loss drugs” (https://www.ft.com/content/c290585e-5a08-46da-b249-910a96a0179b)

[8] Insider Monkey - “Jim Cramer on Novo Nordisk: It Seems Eli Lilly’s Eating Their Lunch” (https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/jim-cramer-on-novo-nordisk-it-seems-eli-lillys-eating-their-lunch-1690539/)

[9] MarketBeat analysis of healthcare sector market caps

[10] New York Times coverage via multiple sources - Novo Nordisk first annual sales decline forecast

[11] Eli Lilly Q4 2025 earnings report and 2026 guidance

[12] Guru Focus - “Eli Lilly Stock Jumps on Wave of Analysts Upgrade” (https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8591053/eli-lilly-stock-jumps-on-wave-of-analysts-upgrade)

[13] Company overview data with analyst actions

[14] J.P. Morgan Research - “The increase in appetite for obesity drugs” (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/obesity-drugs)

[15] Seeking Alpha - “UK regulator warns of rare vision loss risk with Novo’s Ozempic, Wegovy” (https://seekingalpha.com/news/4548631-uk-regulator-warns-rare-vision-loss-risk-novo-nordisk-ozempic-wegovy)

[16] Baron Funds Q4 2025 investor letter

[17] Insider Monkey - “Jim Cramer Says Eli Lilly’s Constantly Taking Share From Danish Novo Nordisk” (https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/jim-cramer-says-eli-lillys-constantly-taking-share-from-danish-novo-nordisk-1690554/)

[18] Grand View Research - “GLP-1 Agonists Weight Loss Drugs Market Report, 2030” (https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/glp-1-agonists-weight-loss-drugs-market-report)

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Analysis compiled using market data, financial statements, news reports, and analyst perspectives as of February 7, 2026.