Google TPU Ironwood: Technical Leap but Not a NVIDIA Disruptor—A Balanced Analysis

Google’s 7th-gen TPU Ironwood delivers 4614 TFLOPS per chip with 192GB HBM3E memory, outperforming NVIDIA GPUs in inference (15-30x faster) and energy efficiency (30-80x better). However, NVIDIA holds 92% of the global AI chip market, driven by its Blackwell architecture (512B Q3 data center revenue) and CUDA software moat with 5000B backorders.

• Reddit
  : AI is not a bubble as it requires continuous compute (countering static software claims) and recommends supply chain plays like Lumentum (LITE) and NAND flash.
• Xueqiu
  : Google’s TPU has a closed ecosystem (no CUDA support) limiting adoption beyond Google, while NVIDIA’s open platform serves global clients; energy infrastructure is a critical bottleneck.

• Supply Chain
  : Lumentum (LITE) benefits from Google’s OCS technology; NAND flash demand surges due to multi-modal AI data growth.
• Energy
  : Power infrastructure and energy storage are key (e.g., Bloom Energy’s relevance for AI data center供电).
• Long-term
  : NVIDIA’s CUDA moat remains unchallenged, while Google’s TPU is a niche player for its own ecosystem.

Google’s technical leap does not disrupt NVIDIA’s dominance—open compute platforms (NVIDIA) will lead global AI infrastructure, while closed systems (TPU) serve vertical use cases.