Supreme Court Tariff Case Analysis: Market Impact on AMZN, WMT, AAPL, CAT, NKE, LULU

This analysis examines the potential market impact of a Supreme Court ruling against Trump-era tariffs on six major stocks: Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Apple (AAPL), Caterpillar (CAT), Nike (NKE), and Lululemon (LULU). The Court is currently hearing a landmark case challenging the president’s tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), with justices appearing skeptical of unbounded presidential power [1].

As of November 7, 2025, the stocks show mixed performance, with consumer discretionary names particularly under pressure [0]:

• Nike (NKE): $61.89 (-0.35%), well below 52-week high of $82.44
• Lululemon (LULU): $163.55 (-2.41%), severely down from 52-week high of $423.32
• Amazon (AMZN): $243.04 (-2.86%)
• Walmart (WMT): $101.68 (+0.21%), relatively stable
• Apple (AAPL): $269.77 (-0.14%), near 52-week highs
• Caterpillar (CAT): $569.78 (+0.11%), showing resilience

The companies face varying levels of tariff impact based on their manufacturing and supply chain exposure [0][3][4][5]:

1. Highest Exposure - Nike (NKE):
   Nearly all footwear and apparel manufactured outside the U.S., with approximately 50% of shoes produced in Vietnam [3]. The stock fell 13% in April 2025 to its lowest level since 2017 due to tariff concerns [3].

2. High Exposure - Lululemon (LULU):
   Products manufactured across multiple tariff-impacted countries including Vietnam (46% tariff), China (34%), Cambodia (49%), Sri Lanka (44%), and Indonesia (32%) [4]. Also dropped 13% in April 2025 [3].

3. Significant Exposure - Caterpillar (CAT):
   Expects $1.6-$1.75 billion in tariff costs for 2025 due to complex global supply chains [5].

4. Moderate Exposure - Amazon (AMZN):
   Dropped 9% to $178.41 in April 2025 due to tariff fears and is overhauling supply chains as China tariffs bite [3][7].

5. Moderate Exposure - Walmart (WMT):
   Reduced Chinese imports by 10% in 2024, shifting to Vietnam and Thailand, with 5% rise in logistics costs due to longer shipping routes [8].

6. Lower Relative Exposure - Apple (AAPL):
   More diversified manufacturing base, currently trading near 52-week highs [0].

The tariff impact reveals a clear pattern where companies with higher offshore manufacturing exposure and less diversified supply chains have suffered greater stock price declines. Consumer discretionary brands with direct-to-consumer pricing power appear most vulnerable to tariff-induced margin compression.

The April 2025 tariff concerns triggered significant sell-offs in consumer stocks, with Nike and Lululemon both falling 13% [3]. This suggests market participants have already partially priced in tariff risks, but a Supreme Court ruling against tariffs could trigger substantial relief rallies.

Companies have been actively reshoring and diversifying supply chains in response to tariff pressures. Walmart reduced Chinese imports by 10% in 2024 [8], while Amazon has been overhauling its supply chains [7]. These adaptations, while costly, may provide some insulation against future trade disruptions.

The potential refund of $90+ billion in collected tariff revenue represents a substantial economic stimulus that could directly benefit corporate balance sheets and cash flows [1]. Caterpillar’s $1.6-$1.75 billion annual tariff burden illustrates the scale of ongoing costs that could be eliminated [5].

1. Nike (NKE) - Highest Upside Potential:
   Most beaten down from tariff impact (down from $82.44 to $61.89) with highest tariff exposure across manufacturing base [0][3]. Could see significant margin expansion and multiple re-rating.

2. Lululemon (LULU) - Substantial Upside:
   Severely impacted (down from $423.32 to $163.55) with high tariff rates across multiple manufacturing countries [0][4]. Strong brand fundamentals could drive sharp rebound.

3. Caterpillar (CAT) - Moderate Upside:
   $1.6-$1.75 billion annual cost burden could be eliminated, with strong operational performance despite tariffs [5][6].

1. Timing Uncertainty:
   Supreme Court ruling not expected before early 2026, creating extended uncertainty [2].

2. Implementation Complexity:
   The refund process could be mired in red tape and take 1-2 years, potentially disadvantaging smaller companies [1].

3. Limited Eligibility:
   May only apply to companies that sued over tariffs, not all affected businesses [1].

4. Political Resistance:
   Trump administration could make refund process “really ugly” to discourage claims and may find other ways to implement similar trade policies [1][2].

5. Market Expectations:
   Some tariff relief may already be priced in, reducing potential upside [2].

Users should be aware that trade policy uncertainty typically leads to prolonged market volatility. The complex legal and political dynamics surrounding this case create significant uncertainty about both the outcome and its implementation. Historical patterns suggest that even favorable rulings may not translate immediately into stock price gains due to implementation delays and administrative resistance [1][2].

• Nike (NKE)
  : Highest tariff exposure, most beaten-down valuation, potential for significant margin expansion
• Lululemon (LULU)
  : Severe stock decline from tariff impact, high tariff rates across manufacturing base, strong brand fundamentals
• Caterpillar (CAT)
  : Substantial annual tariff costs could be eliminated, strong operational performance

• Supreme Court decision expected in early 2026 [2]
• Refund process could take 1-2 years post-ruling [1]
• Near-term trading strategies face significant timing risk

• Potential $90+ billion in tariff refunds across affected companies [1]
• Caterpillar faces $1.6-$1.75 billion annual tariff costs [5]
• Consumer stocks saw 13% declines in April 2025 due to tariff concerns [3]

• Nike trading 25% below 52-week highs [0]
• Lululemon trading 61% below 52-week highs [0]
• Amazon and Apple showing relative resilience [0]

This analysis suggests that while a favorable Supreme Court ruling could provide substantial relief to tariff-burdened companies, the extended timeline and implementation uncertainty create significant risk factors that must be carefully weighed against potential upside opportunities.