2025 Delayed November CPI Report's Data Distortions to Linger for Months

This analysis is based on the original WSJ report [3] and supplementary coverage [1][2]. On December 18, 2025, the U.S. BLS released a November CPI report delayed by 8 days, with October data entirely canceled, due to the mid-2025 government shutdown [2][3]. To compensate for missing real-time price data, the BLS employed proxy data and historical assumptions—including carrying forward September prices and assuming zero inflation for select housing categories (owners’ equivalent rent/OER and actual rents) [1][2][3]. Since housing costs are the largest CPI component (33-40% of the index), these distortions significantly biased the report downward [1][2][3]. Economists from UBS, KPMG, and Morgan Stanley criticized the report as “flawed” and “wacky,” noting that ~1/3 of cities in the OER calculation had multiple categories with zero assumed inflation [1][2]. The distorted October data acts as a “base anchor” for future CPI calculations, so the bias will persist until April 2026 when the 12-month window moves past the shutdown period [1]. Markets reacted muted due to widespread pre-warned skepticism [2], and the Fed is expected to discount the report’s housing component, relying on alternative indicators like the PCE price index for policy decisions [2].

1. Government Shutdown Ripple Effects
   : The shutdown’s impact extends beyond immediate operations, distorting critical economic data that informs policy and market decisions.
2. Housing Component Sensitivity
   : The outsized weight of housing in the CPI means even small methodological distortions can significantly skew overall inflation metrics.
3. Fed Policy Resilience
   : The Fed’s reliance on multiple inflation indicators (not just CPI) reduces the risk of policy missteps due to the report’s flaws.
4. Long-Term Data Correction
   : The anticipated April 2026 upward correction in housing inflation could temporarily create misleading “reacceleration” signals, requiring careful interpretation by analysts.

• Risks
  :
  • Short-term policy uncertainty if alternative inflation indicators also exhibit anomalies.
  • Market volatility in April 2026 when the housing data correction occurs.
  • Reduced public trust in government economic data if similar issues persist.
• Opportunities
  :
  • Increased use of private-sector rent indices (e.g., Zillow, CoreLogic) to complement BLS data, providing a clearer near-term inflation picture.
  • BLS may revise its methodology to better handle data collection disruptions in future shutdowns.
  • Investors can capitalize on market inefficiencies from misinterpretations of distorted CPI data.

• The November 2025 CPI report was delayed 8 days, with October data canceled, due to the mid-2025 government shutdown.
• BLS used statistical assumptions (carried forward prices, zero inflation) for housing categories, distorting ~33% of the CPI.
• Economists broadly dismiss the report’s accuracy, citing insufficient methodological transparency.
• Distortions will linger until April 2026, with muted market reaction and limited Fed policy impact in the short term.
• Alternative inflation indicators (PCE, private rent indices) will likely be prioritized by policymakers and analysts.

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database
[1] CNBC
[2] Fortune
[3] WSJ