Analysis of Viktor Shvets' 2026 Economic & AI Bubble Predictions

Viktor Shvets, Head of Global Desk Strategy at Macquarie Capital [0], delivered a 2026 outlook highlighting two core themes: the economy’s “dead and alive” status and the forming of an AI bubble. The “alive” dimension reflects AI-driven growth: AI investment is fueling economic expansion, with companies like Best Buy (BBY) benefiting from AI-related revenue [5], and the ECB’s Christine Lagarde noting AI’s positive investment impact [2]. The “dead” aspect stems from ongoing inflation concerns and central bank policy uncertainty: while 2025 saw the largest global central bank easing push in over a decade [1], some analysts anticipate a shift to rate hikes in 2026 [1]. This tension creates a lack of visibility for consumers and producers, who face uncertainty about future interest rates and the AI boom’s sustainability.

1. Cross-Domain Tensions
   : The AI boom (a tech-driven growth engine) is clashing with monetary policy uncertainty, creating the “dead and alive” economic dichotomy.
2. Consensus on AI Bubble Risks
   : Shvets’ 2026 AI bubble prediction aligns with widespread market concerns: 50% of Bank of America survey respondents believe AI stocks are already in bubble territory [3], and Ray Dalio cited “unsustained buying” and “unsustained valuation” as bubble indicators [4].
3. Policy Uncertainty Amplifies Risk
   : Central banks’ data-dependent approach, combined with mixed inflation signals (including two dissents in the Fed’s December 2025 rate cut [2]), reduces the visibility that businesses and consumers need to make informed decisions.

• Risks
  :
  • Market volatility if an AI bubble forms and bursts, echoing historical tech bubble patterns.
  • Economic slowdown if central banks shift to rate hikes in 2026, particularly if this coincides with an AI bubble collapse.
  • Eroded investor and consumer confidence due to prolonged visibility gaps and policy uncertainty.
• Opportunities
  : AI sectors with demonstrated earnings (as distinct from speculative plays) may continue to drive growth, and companies adapting to policy uncertainty could gain a competitive edge.

• Viktor Shvets is a respected global desk strategy analyst at Macquarie Capital [0].
• 2025 saw major central bank easing, but 2026 may bring rate hikes [1].
• AI investment drives economic growth but faces bubble concerns from 45% of surveyed fund managers [3].
• The economy’s “dead and alive” status reflects conflicting signals of AI growth and inflation/policy uncertainty.