Tim Urbanowicz’s 2026 “Unicorn Year” Prediction: Apollo’s Risk-Off Shift and Consumer Strength

This analysis is based on the CNBC interview event [0] and supporting external data. On December 22, 2025, Tim Urbanowicz, Chief Investment Strategist at Innovator Capital Management, appeared on CNBC’s ‘The Exchange’ to discuss three core topics: Apollo Global Management’s shift to “risk-off” mode, the strength of the U.S. consumer, and a prediction that 2026 will be a “unicorn” year for investors with consumers in control [0].

Apollo’s risk-off shift is supported by its December 18, 2025, announcement of expanded asset-level risk reviews, specifically focusing on extreme weather impacts [1]. This aligns with broader institutional trends of increasing climate-related risk management. Simultaneously, consumer strength is corroborated by industry comments, including from the Tanger CEO, who noted resilient consumer demand and willingness to spend [2]. This creates a potential tension: Apollo’s cautious stance contrasts with the robust consumer behavior that typically drives economic growth and risk-on market sentiment. Urbanowicz’s “unicorn year” forecast likely refers to exceptional investment opportunities or above-average returns, which he ties directly to consumer-driven growth [0].

1. Consumer-Centric Growth as a Counterbalance
   : Urbanowicz’s 2026 forecast positions consumer spending (which accounts for ~70% of U.S. GDP) as the primary driver of market performance, potentially mitigating the impact of Apollo’s risk-off strategy and broader institutional caution.
2. Climate Risks Driving Institutional Strategy
   : Apollo’s expanded risk reviews highlight the growing importance of climate-related vulnerabilities in institutional investment decisions, a trend that may influence other large asset managers [1].
3. Definition of “Unicorn Year”
   : In this context, the term likely denotes exceptional market returns rather than startup valuation milestones, reflecting Urbanowicz’s optimism about consumer-driven corporate earnings growth [0].

• Apollo’s risk-off shift may lead other institutional investors to adopt more conservative strategies, potentially reducing capital flows to higher-risk assets [1].
• Unaddressed extreme weather risks could expose Apollo and other firms to unexpected asset vulnerabilities, though the exact scope of these risks remains unclear due to information gaps.

• Resilient consumer demand could boost revenue and earnings for consumer-facing sectors (retail, hospitality, discretionary goods), presenting potential investment opportunities [2].
• Urbanowicz’s optimistic 2026 forecast may improve investor sentiment toward consumer-driven sectors, driving increased capital allocation.

• Event
  : CNBC ‘The Exchange’ interview with Tim Urbanowicz (Innovator Capital) on December 22, 2025 [0].
• Apollo’s Risk-Off Strategy
  : Expanded asset-level risk reviews focused on extreme weather impacts (December 18, 2025) [1].
• Consumer Strength
  : Tanger CEO comments on resilient consumer demand and spending willingness (December 23, 2025) [2].
• 2026 Forecast
  : Urbanowicz predicts a “unicorn year” for investors, with consumers in control of market performance [0].
• Information Gaps
  : Exact details of Urbanowicz’s supporting arguments, Apollo’s full risk-off strategy, and the data behind the 2026 forecast are unavailable due to crawl failures.