Brink's Company (BCO) Investment Analysis: All-Time Highs with 132% DCF Upside

Based on my comprehensive analysis, I can now provide you with a detailed assessment of Brink’s Company (BCO) stock reaching all-time highs and its valuation.

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Brink’s Company shares have reached historic highs at

, representing a remarkable over the past year (from $93.31 to $127.08). The stock has demonstrated exceptional momentum, with the following key performance metrics:

Time Period	Return
1 Month	+7.57%
3 Months	+13.94%
6 Months	+45.33%
1 Year	+32.80%
3 Years	+100.60%

The stock is currently trading at its

, with strong technical indicators suggesting continued momentum with a next target price of $130.01 [0].

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Brink’s has demonstrated consistent earnings acceleration throughout 2025, with quarterly EPS growing from $1.62 (Q1) to $2.08 (Q3):

Quarter	EPS	Revenue
Q1 FY2025	$1.62	$1.25B
Q2 FY2025	$1.79	$1.30B
Q3 FY2025	$2.08	$1.33B
Q4 FY2024	$2.12	$1.26B

The company reported full-year 2024 revenue of

with net income attributable to Brink’s of ($3.63 diluted EPS), demonstrating solid profitability improvement over the prior year [0].

Annual revenue has shown consistent growth:

• 2022
  : $4.54 billion
• 2023
  : $4.87 billion (+7.3% YoY)
• 2024
  : $5.01 billion (+2.8% YoY) [0]

The company benefits from diversified revenue streams across three primary segments:

• North America
  : $434.8M (32.6%)
• Europe
  : $353.1M (26.4%)
• Latin America
  : $326.8M (24.5%)
• Rest of World
  : $220.3M (16.5%) [0]

Brink’s has successfully executed on its four strategic pillars:

1. Partner for Customer Success
   – Focus on customer-centric service delivery
2. Innovate to Grow
   – Technology-enabled solutions including DRS and AMS
3. Run the Business Better
   – Operational excellence through the Brink’s Business System
4. Win as Team Brink’s
   – Talent development and culture building [0]

The company’s Digital Retail Solutions (DRS) and ATM Managed Services (AMS) segment, representing

, has grown from $1.0 billion (2023) to $1.2 billion (2024), demonstrating successful diversification beyond traditional cash-in-transit services [0].

The company has been actively returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks:

• $500 million Share Repurchase Program
  completed in 2024
• Additional
  $203.6 million
  spent on share repurchases in 2024 alone
• The reduced share count has amplified EPS growth [0]

Brink’s pays a dividend of approximately

to shareholders, providing income support alongside capital appreciation [0].

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Metric	Value	Industry Comparison
P/E Ratio (TTM)	31.36x	Elevated vs. Industrials average (~20x)
P/B Ratio	19.87x	High
P/S Ratio	1.03x	Reasonable
EV/OCF	12.28x	Moderate

The elevated P/E ratio of

suggests the market is pricing in significant future growth. However, the DCF analysis reveals substantial upside potential [0]:

Scenario	Fair Value	Upside vs. Current
Conservative	$195.28	+53.4%
Base Case	$262.43	+106.1%
Optimistic	$431.73	+239.1%
Probability-Weighted	$296.48	+132.9%

The DCF analysis indicates the current price of $127.32 represents significant discount to intrinsic value, with the probability-weighted fair value of

suggesting [0].

The base case scenario uses the following assumptions aligned with historical 5-year averages:

• Revenue Growth (CAGR):
  7.9%
• EBITDA Margin:
  13.7%
• WACC:
  8.7%
• Terminal Growth:
  2.5%
  [0]

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Brink’s is a

of cash and valuables management, digital retail solutions, and ATM managed services. The company operates in with approximately and and [0].

1. Brand Recognition
   : The BRINK’S name is a registered service mark globally recognized for security expertise
2. Global Network
   : Controlling ownership interests in 51 countries with agency relationships in additional countries
3. Security Expertise
   : 165+ years of experience since 1859 with rigorous security practices
4. Technology Innovation
   : Proprietary solutions including Brink’s Complete™, CompuSafe®, iDeposit, and Daily Credit
5. Logistics Excellence
   : Proven operational excellence and risk management expertise
6. Financial Strength
   : High-quality insurance coverage and strong balance sheet [0]

Brink’s largest multinational competitors include:

• Loomis AB
  (Sweden)
• Prosegur, Compania de Seguridad, S.A.
  (Spain)
• Garda World Security Corporation
  (Canada) [0]

The company differentiates through service quality and value-added solutions rather than competing on price alone, targeting customers who prioritize security and reliability.

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1. Debt Risk
   : Classified as moderate risk with long-term debt of
   $3.6 billion
   and total liabilities of
   $6.3 billion
   [0]
2. Interest Expense
   : Increased to
   $235.4 million
   in 2024 from $203.8 million in 2023
3. Economic Sensitivity
   : Revenues are affected by levels of economic activity and cash usage trends
4. Currency Exposure
   : Significant foreign operations create currency translation risks (foreign currency translation loss of $556.7M) [0]

The technical analysis shows some cautionary signals:

• KDJ indicator
  : K=80.5, D=74.4, J=92.5 (overbought warning)
• Beta
  : 1.09 (slightly more volatile than the market)
• 20-Day Annualized Volatility
  : 26.03% [0]

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Rating	Count	Percentage
Buy	6	66.7%
Hold	3	33.3%
Sell	0	0%

: (+8.4% from current levels) [0]

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1. Growth Momentum
   : Consistent earnings acceleration and revenue growth support premium valuation
2. Market Position
   : Industry leader with strong competitive moats and global scale
3. DCF Undervaluation
   : Probability-weighted fair value of $296 suggests significant upside
4. Strategic Transformation
   : Successful shift toward technology-enabled services (DRS/AMS)
5. Capital Return
   : Active share buybacks and dividends enhance shareholder value

1. Premium Valuation
   : 31x P/E is elevated relative to historical norms and industry peers
2. Technical Overbought
   : Short-term indicators suggest potential pullback
3. Cash Usage Trends
   : Long-term shift toward digital payments could impact traditional CIT volumes
4. Debt Load
   : Moderate debt risk requires continued attention to deleveraging

The current valuation, while elevated, appears

given:

• Strong competitive position in a fragmented industry
• Accelerating earnings growth trajectory
• Successful business transformation toward higher-margin technology services
• Substantial DCF-derived upside potential

However, investors should be mindful of the overbought technical indicators and monitor the company’s ability to sustain growth as digital payment adoption continues to reshape the cash logistics industry.

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[0] 金灵AI金融数据库 - 市场数据、财务分析、估值模型及SEC filing数据
[1] Yahoo Finance - “Brink’s or Loomis: Two Ways to Own the Persistence of Cash” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brinks-loomis-two-ways-own-103646491.html)
[2] SEC.gov - BCO Form 10-K Filing (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/78890/000007889025000059/bco-20241231.htm)