POET Technologies: Photonics Play with High Risk/Reward Profile

The Reddit discussion shows strong bullish sentiment around POET, with multiple users reporting share purchases and long-dated call positions (January 2026/2027 $10 strikes)[1]. The post garnered significant engagement (468 upvotes, 264 comments) across multiple subreddits including wallstreetbets, stocks, and pennystocks. However, concerns were raised about the company’s 20F filing reading “like a penny stock,” potential dilution from recent capital raises, and unknown yields on the $5M production order[1]. Some users expressed fatigue over repeated weekly DD posts, while others suggested alternatives like Lumentum ($LITE) for high-speed laser exposure[1].

POET Technologies develops proprietary Optical Interposer technology that integrates photonics and electronics for AI data center connectivity[2]. The company recently closed a $150M oversubscribed registered direct offering in October 2025, issuing 20.7 million shares at $7.25, boosting cash position to over $300M[2]. Key developments include:

• $5M production order for 800G POET Infinity optical engines with shipments scheduled for H2 2026
• Strategic partnerships with Foxconn (800G/1.6T transceivers), Semtech (1.6T optical receivers launched September 2024), and Sivers Semiconductors (scalable laser modules)
• 2024 Best Optical AI Solution award recognition
• Current financial position shows early-stage commercialization with only $468K trailing twelve-month revenue[2]

There’s a notable disconnect between Reddit’s bullish price targets ($10-12 by end-2025) and analyst consensus ($5.50-7.00)[2]. Both sources confirm the recent $150M capital raise and $5M production order, but Reddit appears more optimistic about near-term catalysts. The research clarifies that the $150M offering closed in October 2025 (not 2024 as some Reddit posts may imply), and production shipments aren’t expected until H2 2026, suggesting revenue realization is further out than some Reddit users anticipate[2]. The strong cash position from the fundraise provides runway, but the company remains in early commercialization stages with minimal current revenue.

• Strong cash position ($300M+) provides extended runway for technology development
• Strategic partnerships with major players (Foxconn, Semtech) validate technology
• Growing AI data center market demand for high-speed optical connectivity
• Potential 40% manufacturing cost reduction for customers through “semiconductorization” of photonics
• First major volume commitment secured with $5M production order

• Significant execution risk with shipments not expected until H2 2026
• Minimal current revenue ($468K TTM) vs. $600M+ market cap
• Penny stock characteristics and governance concerns raised by investors
• Potential dilution from future capital needs
• Partner Sivers Photonics paused their NASDAQ de-SPAC merger in November 2024
• Conservative analyst price targets ($5.50-7.00) vs. Reddit’s bullish expectations ($10-12)