POET Technologies: Photonics Play with Bullish Reddit Sentiment vs. Mixed Fundamentals

Reddit sentiment on POET is predominantly bullish with several users accumulating calls for asymmetric upside:

• Strong call accumulation
  : Multiple users including tpjunkie (holding 100 shares and 2027 $5 calls), MyboiHarambe99 (Jan 2027 calls), and MediocreDesigner88 (doubling down to $200k in calls) demonstrate retail bullishness on options positioning

• Price action concerns
  : TFC_OG questioned why the stock falls despite positive news, high open interest, and positive gamma exposure, suggesting disconnect between fundamentals and price action

• Red flags raised
  : Additional-Face-5033 noted the CEO has been consistently selling shares, while DickelPick69 cautioned that the 20F filing reads like a penny stock despite initial excitement

• Alternative plays suggested
  : Gaseous_Clay_OK recommended LITE as an alternative, noting optical networking needs high-speed lasers more than POET’s unproven technology

• Skeptical counter-position
  : Some users like Few-Rich7352 expressed skepticism with “so… puts?” and unresolved-madness planning puts due to retail bullishness

Research validates several key catalysts while providing additional context:

• Recent financing success
  : $150M oversubscribed registered direct offering closed in October 2025, leaving the company with over $300M in cash for acquisitions and expansion

• Production milestones confirmed
  : $5M production order for 800G POET Infinity optical engines with shipments slated for H2’26

• Strategic partnerships validated
  : Partnership with Semtech confirmed with 1.6T Rx engines launched September 30 offering 200G/lane options; significant equity stake acquired in Sivers Photonics

• Recognition and analyst sentiment
  : POET won the 2024 AI Breakthrough Award for Best Optical AI Solution; Wall Street consensus has shifted to predominantly Strong Buy with average price target of $6.29 (22.61% upside)

• Current valuation and momentum
  : Stock trades at $6.44 as of October 31, 2025, showing recent upward momentum; demonstrated 80.19% gain over a five-day period in 2024, indicating high volatility

• Insider activity
  : Significant option exercises at low prices ($1.24-$1.27) followed by market acquisitions at higher prices ($5.12-$9.04), suggesting insider confidence

The Reddit bullish thesis aligns closely with verified research catalysts, particularly around recent financing, production orders, and strategic partnerships. However, several contradictions emerge:

• Timing discrepancy
  : Reddit discussion appears to reference the October 2025 $150M offering as a recent catalyst, which research confirms but with corrected timing

• Insider selling concern
  : Reddit’s red flag about CEO selling conflicts with research showing insider confidence through option exercises and market acquisitions

• Technology validation gap
  : Reddit skepticism about POET’s unproven technology contrasts with the 2024 AI Breakthrough Award and strategic partnerships with established players

• Volatility vs. fundamentals
  : Reddit users’ confusion about price weakness despite positive news is supported by research showing high volatility (80% five-day gain) and periods of increased hedging activity

The $10-12 price target by end-2025 appears ambitious given the current $6.29 analyst consensus, though the strong cash position and upcoming H2’26 shipments provide potential catalysts.

• Strong financial position
  : $300M+ cash enables strategic acquisitions and operational expansion
• AI tailwinds
  : Optical interposers address critical AI data center bandwidth bottlenecks
• Production timeline
  : H2’26 shipments of 800G engines provide near-term revenue visibility
• Strategic partnerships
  : Semtech and Sivers Photonics relationships validate technology and market access

• Technology execution
  : Unproven technology in competitive optical networking space
• Market volatility
  : High stock volatility (80% five-day swings) suggests speculative trading
• Leadership concerns
  : CEO selling patterns may signal confidence issues
• Competition
  : Established players like LITE may have superior technology for optical networking needs
• Timing risk
  : Production shipments not until H2’26, creating execution gap

The asymmetric upside thesis via Jan 2026/2027 $10 calls appears high-risk/high-reward, with Reddit retail enthusiasm potentially creating short-term momentum. However, fundamental execution risk and technology validation concerns suggest a more cautious approach may be warranted. The strong cash position provides downside protection, but investors should monitor H2’26 production execution and competitive dynamics closely.